Tuesday Market Update – September 19, 2023
Interest Rate Update:
Mortgage rates are down slightly and trading in a mostly sideways pattern as we head into Fed week. On Wednesday, the Fed will announce their latest policy decision which will be to leave rates unchanged. As with most Fed meetings, they like to telegraph their decision ahead of time so as not to surprise markets. Therefore, the big reveal will come from the Fed’s updated forecasts for future monetary policy.
Updated Fed Forecast:
The Fed is likely to acknowledge that underlying inflation is cooler than it thought just a few months ago and the economy remains stronger than expected. While the Fed will keep rates on hold, updated projections will likely show that eventual Fed rate cuts are pushed farther out. Fed projections may also still show one last, quarter-percentage-point rate hike by the end of the year, but this is a just-in-case place holder. Absent a reacceleration in core inflation, the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over.